Predictive Risk Scoring: The Decision Engine of COD Logistics
Executive Snapshot: From Random Growth to Smart Filtration In 2026, success in African e-commerce is no longer measured by the volume of incoming orders, but by the ability to filter them before they leave the warehouse gate. With Return-to-Origin (RTO) rates for Cash-on-Delivery (COD) orders reaching critical levels between 15% and 30% in major markets, predictive risk scoring has emerged as the operational engine separating profitable platforms from those bleeding capital on failed deliveries. Cash-on-Delivery remains the dominant payment method across large parts of the continent, as explored in our analysis of Cash on Delivery infrastructure in Africa . While COD expands market accessibility, it also introduces structural logistics risks that platforms must learn to manage intelligently. Key Insights COD return rates in African markets range between 15% – 30% . Predictive risk scoring can reduce failed deliveries by up to 40% . Customer purchase ...